Stanley M. Caress & Todd T. Kunioka 
Term Limits and Their Consequences 
The Aftermath of Legislative Reform

Legislative term limits remain a controversial feature of the American political landscape.
Term Limits and Their Consequences provides a clear, comprehensive, and nonpartisan look at all aspects of this contentious subject. Stanley M. Caress and Todd T. Kunioka trace the emergence of the grassroots movement that supported term limits and explain why the idea of term limits became popular with voters. At the same time, they put term limits into a broader historical context, illustrating how they are one of many examples of the public’s desire to reform government. Utilizing an impressive blend of quantitative data and interviews, Caress and Kunioka thoughtfully discuss the impact of term limits, focusing in particular on the nation’s largest state, California. They scrutinize voting data to determine if term limits have altered election outcomes or the electoral chances of women and minority candidates, and reveal how restricting a legislator’s time in office has changed political careers and ambitions. Designed to transform American politics, term limits did indeed bring change, but in ways ranging far beyond those anticipated by both their advocates and detractors.

Tabla de materias

List of Tables



1. Introduction



Why Study Term Limits?

How Term Limits Have Been Studied

The Early Debate

Early Scholarship

Methodological Weaknesses of Early Pre-Implementation Studies

Methods Used in Later Studies

This Book



2. Movement to Establish Term Limits



Difference between Mass Political Movements and Grassroots Democracy Movements

Essential Elements of Grassroots Democracy Movements

The Success of the Movement

Historical Stages of the Term Limit Movement

Conclusion



3. Why Were Term Limits So Popular



The American Tradition of Political Reform

Normative Perspectives of Support for Term Limits

Research on Why Voters Prefer Term Limits and Still Vote for Their Incumbent

Motivational Categories of Why Voters Prefer Term Limits

The optimistic Politics of Changing Rules



4. Impact of the Election of Women



Predicted Impact on the Election of Women to State Legislatures

Current Evidence form the States

The Potential Anticipatory Influence of Term Limits

Additional Evidence: Comparing Congress with State Legislatures

Case Study: California, the First State to Feel the Impact of Term Limits

Implications of the California Experience: Why Didn’t Term Limits Matter

Other Factors Influence the Election of Women More Than Term Limits

Conclusion



5. Impact of the Election of the Minority Candidates



Research on Minorities and Term Limits

National Trends in the Election of Black and Hispanic Candidates to States Legislatures

Evidence from the California State Assembly, Michigan State house, Georgia House of Representatives, and Pennsylvania State House

Summarizing the Case Study States: Term Limits, Redistricting, and State Demographics



6. Consequences of Term Limit Enactment on Career Paths



Ambition Theory

Impact of Term Limits on Motivation

Career Paths for California’s Term Limited Legislators: Other Impacts on Legislative Careers

Contrasting Career Paths

Michigan v. California

Discussion

Conclusion



7. Changes in Legislative Leadership



Consequences of Eliminating Entrenched Legislative Leaders

Pre-Term Limit California Speaker Pattern

Post-Term Limit Speakership Transition Pattern

California Senate Pattern

Unseating the Leader Even Without Term Limits

Georgia

Minorities in Leadership Positions

Women Obtaining Leadership Positions

Unanticipated Consequences

Weakened Leadership in Other Term-Limited States

Conclusions



8. Insider’s Views of Term Limits



Why Interviews are Important

Views of Experience of a Former State Legislator

The Different Experience of a Post-Term Limits Legislator

Views of Two Legislative Staffers

Views of a Former Insider

What These Interviews Suggest



9. The Future of Term Limits in the States and on Congress



Term Limits and Future Turnover rates

Term Limits in the States

Expansion, Contraction, or the Status Quo?

Future Consequences

Term Limits and Congress

Conclusion



10. Conclusion



The Future of Term Limits

Final Thoughts

Sobre el autor

Stanley M. Caress is Professor of Political Science at the University of West Georgia and the author of
Dynamics of American Politics.
Todd T. Kunioka is a statistical analyst for Los Angeles County and teaches Political Science at Cerritos College in California.